Turbulence Ahead for Weather Satellites

Jane J. Lee

Like a celestial version of Pixar's industrious robot Wall-E, environmental-monitoring satellites continually whiz overhead, quietly performing their allotted tasks of taking data and beaming the information down to climate researchers and weather forecasters.

But a recent U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report highlights the fact that this monitoring network—which weather forecasters and climate researchers rely on—is in trouble.

That's because these U.S.-owned satellites are aging, and there are serious concerns about whether their replacements will be ready by the time they start to break down, said J. Marshall Shepherd, president of the American Meteorological Society and a professor at the University of Georgia in Athens. (Read about the history of satellites.)

The replacement program, known as the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), has suffered under ballooning budgets, mismanagement, and political wrangling. That's partly what prompted the GAO to put weather data on its list of government operations at high risk.

The report stated that "potential gaps in environmental-satellite data beginning as early as 2014 and lasting as long as 53 months have led to concerns that future weather forecasts and warnings—including warnings of extreme events such as hurricanes, storm surges, and floods—will be less accurate and timely."

"But even a 17-month gap, [the shortest estimate for a potential data gap], dramatically affects weather forecast ability, which could lead to challenges to protecting life and property," Shepherd said.

If European models of superstorm Sandy—well known for their accuracy in predicting the monster storm's path—hadn't had information from polar-orbiting satellites, for instance, they would've shown Sandy staying harmlessly out to sea rather than turning inland toward New York and New Jersey. (Read about "Weather Gone Wild" in the September 2012 issue of National Geographic magazine.)

Basic research would also suffer from the loss of data, said Scott Rayder, senior adviser to the president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. "Long-term weather data is climate data, so these [satellite] sensors are important in figuring out how the atmosphere works."

Cause for Concern

Information forecasters incorporate into their models comes from two sets of satellites run by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA—geostationary satellites and polar-orbiting satellites, the American Meteorological Society's Shepherd explained.

Onboard instruments measure environmental factors including atmospheric moisture, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric ozone. This helps scientists keep tabs on things like precipitation and the health of the planet's ozone layer.

The current concern is focused on replacements for polar-orbiting satellites.

Traveling 517 miles (833 kilometers) above the Earth in a pole-to-pole direction every 90 minutes, NOAA's current crop of Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) are nearing the twilight of their life cycles, Shepherd said.

The POES satellites were built with a two- to three-year operational lifetime in mind, said James Gleason, of NASA's Goddard Spaceflight Center in Maryland.

"And they've lasted a long time, some [for] more than a decade," he said. The most recent POES satellite, NOAA-19, was launched in 2009.

Dire Situation

NOAA has another polar-orbiting satellite, called Suomi NPP, that's also taking weather data. Launched in 2011, it was supposed to be a proof of concept in order to test instruments slated to fly on JPSS, said Shepherd.

But due to repeated delays in the JPSS program, NOAA is using Suomi NPP as an operational satellite. "It's working swimmingly," he said.

"We're pretty sure [Suomi] NPP will last until 2016," said NASA's Gleason, senior project scientist for JPSS.

But JPSS isn't scheduled to launch until early 2017—and that depends on what happens to funding in the federal budget and whether the sequester kicks in, Gleason said.

NOAA is currently working on a plan to bridge any gap, should it occur, in data from their satellites. One possibility includes using a fleet of satellites owned by the U.S. military, called the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, to gather needed weather data.

The agency put out a call last year asking for suggestions on how the community could deal with a gap.

But as it stands right now, the situation is dire, said Shepherd.

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Las Vegas Shooting Launches Multi-State Manhunt

An argument in the valet area of a Las Vegas hotel led to a deadly drive-by shooting on the occupants of a Maserati on Vegas' glitzy strip, initiating a multi-state manhunt for the black Range Rover from which the shots were fired.

Three people were left dead in the attack, including two who died when their taxi was struck by the careening sports car and exploded into flames.

"What happened is not just tragic, but underscores the level of violence we see sometimes here in Las Vegas as well as across America," Las Vegas Metropolitan Sheriff Doug Gillespie said at a news conference today. "Clearly, the suspects in this shooting have no regard for the lives and safety of others."

The altercation took place in the valet area of the Aria resort and casino. Gillespie said there is currently "no indication" what the squabble was about.

Gillespie said that authorities do not know how many people are in the SUV, but that they are considered armed and dangerous. He warned members of the public to stay away from it.

"You should not take action," he said. "Instead, call your local police department and alert them to the whereabouts of the suspect vehicle."

Authorities in Nevada, Utah, Arizona and California are all on alert for the car.

"These individuals will be found," Gillespie said. "They will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law."

Steve Marcus/Las Vegas Sun/AP Photo

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The Range Rover SUV shot at two people in the Maserati, which caused a multi-car crash. Police have not released the model of the Maserati, but the price of a new Maserati ranges from $123,000 to $142,000.

Police said that they believe a group of men riding in a black Range Rover Sport SUV pulled up alongside the Maserati around 4:20 a.m. today and fired shots into the car, striking the driver and passenger, according to Officer Jose Hernandez of the Las Vegas Metropolitan police department.

The Maserati then swerved through an intersection, hitting at least four other cars. One car that was struck, a taxi with a driver and passenger in it, caught on fire and burst into flames, trapping both occupants, Hernandez said.

The SUV then fled the scene, according to cops.

Gillespie said investigators are in the process of gathering video footage from hotels, casinos and the taxi cabs that were at the intersection.

The driver of the Maserati died from his gunshot wounds at University Medical Center shortly after the shooting, according to Sgt. John Sheahan.

The driver and passenger of the taxi both died in the car fire.

At least three individuals, including the passenger of the Maserati, were injured during the shooting and car crashes and taken to UMC hospital for treatment.

Authorities said the Maserati passenger, identified only as a man, sustained only a minor injury to his arm. He is speaking to and cooperating with police.

They do not yet know whether the cars had local plates or were from out of state.

No bystanders were hit by gunfire, Hernandez said.

"We're currently looking for a black Range Rover Sport, with large black rims and some sort of dealership advertising or advertisement plates," Hernandez said. "This is an armed and dangerous vehicle."

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority had no immediate comment about the safety of tourists in the wake of the shooting today.

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US stocks dive after Fed minutes

NEW YORK: US stocks piled up losses Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes showed divisions over asset purchases, with some officials suggesting to wind them down before the jobs market picks up.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 108.13 points (0.77 percent) at 13,927.54.

The S&P 500-stock index fell 18.99 points (1.24 percent) to 1,511.95 and the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite dropped 49.18 points (1.53 percent) to 3,164.41, dragged down by heavyweight Apple, off 2.4 percent.

After opening mostly lower amid mixed housing and wholesale inflation data, the indexes hit fresh session lows after the Fed released the minutes of the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

A "number" of participants said that an ongoing evaluation of the $85 billion per month asset purchases "might well lead the committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred," the minutes said.

Paul Edelstein of IHS Global Insight said in a research note that "if markets do not expect the Fed to stay the course, then expectations for economic growth and inflation will stay depressed and demand for safe assets (cash and government securities) will remain high."

Office Depot and OfficeMax meanwhile confirmed their merger after a premature announcement of the news.

The all-stock merger would create an $18 billion office supplies retailer. Office Depot shares slumped 16.7 percent and OfficeMax shed 7.0 percent.

Hotel chain Marriott fell 2.7 percent after posting quarterly results that missed expectations.

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers also suffered from disappointing earnings, losing 9.1 percent.

Dell, which reported a 32 percent profit fall in 2012 that was nevertheless slightly better than expected, rose 0.2 percent.

Yahoo! fell 1.7 percent after unveiling a new homepage.

Sony slid 1.2 percent ahead of its PlayStation 4 news conference

The bond market was mixed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 2.02 percent from 2.03 percent late Tuesday, while the 30-year edged up to 3.21 percent from 3.20 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

-AFP/ac

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West Bengal govt plans to depoliticize students' union polls

KOLKATA: Increasing incidence of violence on campuses in West Bengal has forced the Mamata Banerjee government to explore ways to depoliticise students' union elections. The state education department has drawn up a draft guideline that proposes to delink student bodies from political parties and make college union polls a 'once-in-two-years' event.

Education minister Bratya Basu is expected to submit the draft to chief minister Mamata Banerjee early next week. "Only after the chief minister's go-ahead, a final draft will be prepared and placed before the cabinet for approval," Basu told TOI on Wednesday.

The proposal comes barely a week after a policeman was shot dead during clashes between students' groups in a city college.

Calcutta University vice-chancellor Suranjan Das, higher education council chairman Sugata Marjit and the education minister have put their heads together to draw up the draft which will be put on the higher education department website on Thursday for stakeholders to give their suggestions.

The guidelines loosely follow the model of Bengal Engineering and Science University (Besu) where the student union has been replaced by a senate with several associate societies or clubs. The move has gone a long way in calming the restive Besu campus.

The latest move has been welcomed by academics. "This is an excellent attempt by the education minister. All my life, I have tried to propagate the idea to delink college politics from party politics. This is a move in the right direction. Now, the question is to implement the draft proposals," said former principal of Presidency College Amal Mukhopadhyay.

According to the draft, college elections will not be fought on political symbols. The student union will be renamed student council and its president will be nominated by the senior most teacher of the college. The vice-president will be nominated by the teachers' council. In case of universities, the vice-chancellor will select the president. The two vice-presidents will be nominated by the executive council and the court - the two top bodies in university administration.

The draft provides for election to the post of general secretary, assistant general secretary and five other secretaries who would look after student activities such as culture, drama, sports, etc. All students would either vote to elect these representatives as in the case of Jawaharlal Nehru University or Jadavpur University or the general secretary would be elected from among class representatives as is done in Calcutta University.

In keeping with the recommendations of the Lyngdoh Commission, an election observer will oversee the process and complete it within a month. The observer may wind up the entire process within 15 days, if he deems it fit.

Primacy has been given to the elected representatives. The elected general secretary will represent students in the college governing body while the general secretary of the students' council will make way to the university's highest body - the executive council.

The purpose is to integrate the students' bodies in the overall academic system rather than turning them into power centres of political parties.

Trinamool Congress Chhatra Parishad leader Shanku Deb Panda, however, reacted cautiously to the move. "We will have to see how far the guidelines can be implemented," he said.

"I have already sent the draft of the students' senate in Besu to the committee formed by the state government and our ideas have been appreciated. We will now wait to read the draft as prepared by the higher education department," said Ajay Ray, vice-chancellor of Besu.

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The True Story of History's Only Known Meteorite Victim

The Russian meteorite, whose sonic boom damaged buildings and injured more than a thousand last week, is not the first to shatter a human life. (See pictures: "Meteorite Hits Russia.")

Take the true story of Ann Hodges, the only confirmed person in history to have been hit by a meteorite.

On a clear afternoon in Sylacauga, Alabama (see map), in late November 1954, Ann was napping on her couch, covered by quilts, when a softball-size hunk of black rock broke through the ceiling, bounced off a radio, and hit her in the thigh, leaving a pineapple-shaped bruise.

Ann's story is particularly rare because most meteorites usually fall into the ocean or strike one of Earth's vast, remote places, according to Michael Reynolds, a Florida State College astronomer and author of the book Falling Stars: A Guide to Meteors & Meteorites.

"Think of how many people have lived throughout human history," Reynolds said.

"You have a better chance of getting hit by a tornado and a bolt of lightning and a hurricane all at the same time."

Out of This World

Before the meteorite slammed into Ann's living room, people in tiny Sylacauga and across eastern Alabama had reported seeing "a bright reddish light like a Roman candle trailing smoke," according to the web publication "The Day the Meteorite Fell in Sylacauga," which was produced by the Alabama Museum of Natural History in 2010.

Others saw "a fireball, like a gigantic welding arc," accompanied by tremendous explosions and a brown cloud. (See video: "Predicting Meteorite Impacts.")

A government geologist working in a nearby quarry was called to the scene and determined the object was a meteorite, but not everyone in town was so sure, according to the museum publication. Many thought a plane had crashed—others suspected the Soviets.

So many people flocked to Hodges's house that when her husband Eugene Hodges, a utility worker, returned home from work, he had to push gawkers off the porch to get inside.

Ann was so overwhelmed by the crowd that she was transferred to a hospital. With Cold War paranoia running high, the Sylacauga police chief confiscated the black rock and turned it over to the Air Force.

After the Air Force confirmed it was a meteorite, the question then was what to do with it. The public demanded the space rock be returned to Ann, and she agreed.

"I feel like the meteorite is mine," she said, according to the museum. "I think God intended it for me. After all, it hit me!"

Simple Country People

But there was a hitch. Ann and Eugene were renters, and their landlady, a recently widowed woman named Birdie Guy, wanted the meteorite for herself.

Guy obtained a lawyer and sued, claiming the rock was hers since it had fallen on her property. The law was actually on her side, but public opinion wasn't.

Guy settled out of court, giving up her claim to the meteorite in exchange for $500. Eugene was convinced the couple could make big money off the rock and turned down a modest offer from the Smithsonian.

But no one bit, and so the Hodges donated the meteorite to the natural history museum in 1956, where it's still on display. (Related: "Meteorites: Best Places to See Them Up Close.")

Ann later suffered a nervous breakdown, and in 1964 she and Eugene separated. She died in 1972 at 52 of kidney failure at a Sylacaugan nursing home.

Eugene suspects the meteorite and frenzy that followed had taken its toll on Ann. He said "she never did recover," according to the museum.

Ann "wasn't a person who sought out the limelight," added museum director Randy Mecredy. "The Hodges were just simple country people, and I really think that all the attention was her downfall."

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Armstrong Snubs Offer From Anti-Doping Officials

Lance Armstrong has turned down what may be his last chance at reducing his lifetime sporting ban.

Armstrong has already admitted in an interview with Oprah Winfrey to a career fueled by doping and deceit. But to get a break from the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency, all he had to do was tell his story to those who police sports doping. The deadline was today, and Armstrong now says he won't do it.

"For several reasons, Lance will not participate in USADA's efforts to selectively conduct American prosecutions that only demonize selected individuals while failing to address the 95 percent of the sport over which USADA has no jurisdiction," said Tim Herman, Armstrong's longtime lawyer. "Lance is willing to cooperate fully and has been very clear: He will be the first man through the door, and once inside will answer every question, at an international tribunal formed to comprehensively address pro cycling."

But the "international tribunal" Armstrong is anxious to cooperate with has one major problem: It doesn't exist.

The UCI, cycling's governing body, has talked about forming a "truth and reconciliation" commission, but the World Anti-Doping Agency has resisted, citing serious concerns about the UCI and its leadership.

READ MORE: Armstrong Admits to Doping

Livestrong, Elizabeth Kreutz/AP Photo

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U.S. Anti-Doping Agency officials seemed stunned by Armstrong's decision simply to walk away.

"Over the last few weeks, he [Armstrong] has led us to believe that he wanted to come in and assist USADA, but was worried of potential criminal and civil liability if he did so," said Travis Tygart, CEO of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency. "Today, we learned from the media that Mr. Armstrong is choosing not to come in and be truthful and that he will not take the opportunity to work toward righting his wrongs in sport."

Armstrong's ongoing saga plays out amid a backdrop of serious legal problems.

Sources believe one reason Armstrong wants to testify to an international tribunal, rather than USADA, is because perjury charges don't apply if Armstrong lies to a foreign agency, they told ABC News.

While Armstrong has admitted doping, he has not given up any details, including the people and methods required to pull off one of the greatest scandals in all of sport.

Armstrong is facing several multimillion-dollar lawsuits right now, but his biggest problems may be on the horizon. As ABC News first reported, a high-level source said a criminal investigation is ongoing. And the Department of Justice also reportedly is considering joining a whistleblower lawsuit claiming the U.S. Postal Service was defrauded out of millions of dollars paid to sponsor Armstrong's cycling team.

READ MORE: 10 Scandalous Public Confessions

PHOTOS: Olympic Doping Scandals: Past and Present

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Education panel: To close achievement gap, urgent state, federal action needed

The nation must act urgently to close the achievement gap between poor and privileged children by changing the way public schools are financed, improving teacher quality, investing in early-childhood education and demanding greater accountability down to the local school board level, according to a report issued Tuesday by an expert panel.

Created by Congress in 2010 — with legislation sponsored by Reps. Michael M. Honda (D-Calif.) and Chaka Fattah (D-Pa.) — the Equity and Excellence Commission aimed to propose ways to improve public education for poor American children. The 27-member panel included, state and federal officials, civil rights activists and academics.

“This is about all levels of government,” said Christopher Edley Jr., dean of the University of California at Berkeley Law School and the commission’s co-chair. “This is a proposed agenda for everyone who’s concerned with the fate of our children and of our public education system.”

The panel released its recommendations to Education Secretary Arne Duncan.

In a telephone call with reporters, Honda said the goal is to focus the public’s attention on a national crisis. “This is not a minority issue. This is not a poverty issue. This is an American issue,” Honda said.

The achievement gap has proved to be a stubborn problem and one of growing concern among educators, policymakers and civic leaders. With enactment of the No Child Left Behind law in 2002, the federal government made closing the gap a priority and a reason for increased accountability in public education. A host of strategies has been deployed in schools across the country to attack the gap, but few have resulted in substantial progress.

Closely tied to race, the gap is creating an underclass that threatens the country’s long-term economic stability, the commission said.

A 2011 study of the country’s 21 largest urban school districts found that every city displayed a difference in performance between whites and blacks and between whites and Hispanics. That study was based on the 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress, which includes federal reading and math exams taken regularly by fourth- and eighth-graders across the country.

“While some young Americans — most of them white and affluent — are getting a truly world-class education, those who attend schools in high poverty neighborhoods are getting an education that more closely approximates school in developing nations,” the commission wrote in its report.

More than 40 percent of U.S. children attend high-poverty schools and 22 percent of children are living below the poverty line, the government said.

Public schools in poor communities have fewer resources, less-experienced teachers and worse facilities than schools in more-affluent communities — an imbalance that must be corrected by state and federal action, the commission said.

“Ten million students in America’s poorest communities . . . are having their lives unjustly and irredeemably blighted by a system that consigns them to the lowest-performing teachers, the most run-down facilities, and academic expectations and opportunities considerably lower than what we expect of other students,” the commission wrote. “These vestiges of segregation, discrimination and inequality are unfinished business for our nation.”

The country’s primary method for funding public schools — property taxes — is one reason for disparate resources, the commission wrote. Communities with elevated real estate values can generate more money for schools, at a lower tax rate, than towns and cities with lower property values.

While the federal government pays about 10 percent of the cost of public education, about half comes from states and 40 percent comes from local communities.

The commission urged states and the federal government to send more tax dollars to high-poverty schools to compensate for the imbalance in local funding. But it stopped short of recommending a new way to fund schools that does not rely so heavily on property taxes.

In 1972, a federal commission convened by President Richard M. Nixon to address school funding concluded that as long as property taxes funded schools, poor and privileged children would be condemned to different educational outcomes.

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Football: LionsXII impress Fandi in 2-2 draw with Johor

SINGAPORE: Fandi Ahmad was left shocked and impressed after his star-studded Johor Darul Takzim were forced to share the spoils at a packed Larkin Stadium, as they drew 2-2 with an impressive LionsXII side in the Malaysian Super League (MSL) on Tuesday night.

Fandi told reporters after the match that he and his players were shocked that the LionsXII had opted to go on the offensive from the start, saying that he had expected V Sundramoorthy's side to adopt "a more counterattacking strategy".

"This has been the best I've seen the LionsXII play," praised Fandi. "I'm also quite puzzled why my players couldn't rise to the occasion tonight and perform."

Indeed, there was a very different look to the LionsXII on Tuesday as they refused to sit back in the first half and often pressed forward in numbers in search of goals.

The LionsXII hardly looked in awe of Johor - who boast the likes of former Lazio player Simone Del Nero and former Spanish international Daniel Guiza - and impressed with fluid passing and hard tackling.

Their desire to draw first blood did not take long to pay dividends when Hariss Harun - who was playing his first match since he suffered a broken fibula in November - blasted the visitors into the lead after four minutes.

The Larkin Stadium was thoroughly silenced by the midfield lynchpin, but it was only for a moment.

Just six minutes later, Johor's livewire midfielder Nurul Azwan lost his marker and sent a low cross into the area which Del Nero superbly headed past goalkeeper Izwan Mahbud to score his first club goal.

Eager to reclaim the initiative, Sundram's charges continued to attack and were rewarded in the 37th minute when Baihakki Khaizan scored with a spectacular diving header following a free-kick.

The match continued to be played at a frenetic pace even after the restart and Fandi soon brought on even more firepower in Safee Sali.

With Safee, Guiza and Norshahrul Idlan Talaha now in attack, the LionsXII found themselves pegged back and digging deep to defend.

Fandi's decision to overload the attack eventually paid off as Norshahrul shrugged off tired LionsXII defenders and fired home Johor's equaliser from 20 yards out.

Despite not bagging the win, Sundram was satisfied with the result, praising his players for the tenacity they displayed.

He said: "I'm very happy the players fought for every ball tonight. The MSL is a very physical league and we've got to be able to fight hard on the field. Player to player, I'm very pleased that our boys can compete against Fandi's."

- TODAY

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No trace of 3,772 children missing from Delhi in last 5 years

NEW DELHI: Over 3,700 children, majority of whom are girls, went missing from Delhi homes in the last five years and are still untraceable yet the Delhi government says it has no evidence of organized gangs operating in the national capital indulging in kidnapping or trafficking of children.

The Delhi home department through advocate S Wasim Qadri cited a special initiative taken by Delhi Police under 'Pehchan' scheme to photograph children belonging to poorer sections of society living in slums.

"This scheme covers areas from where most children go missing and the police are unable to make any headway in tracing them as poor families seldom have photographs of their children. Delhi Police has so far photographed 64,755 children in the last last months," it said.

But the National Human Rights Commission was sceptical about the intent of state governments in protecting children from being kidnapped or trafficked. NHRC's affidavit filed through advocate Shobha said the states had confined to paper the guidelines for protection of children and went through the motion of filing periodic data before the commission.

On Tuesday, this made a bench of Chief Justice Altamas Kabir and Justices A R Dave and Vikramjit Sen to observe, "We are dealing with a PIL concerning children, who constitute 42% of the population. But this does not seem to bother the states which are supposed to be their guardians. This is possibly because they do not have voice."

Though the Delhi government listed its initiatives, it was discernible that the number of missing children not being traced in the last five years had registered a steady increase. Another disturbing factor in the statistics was that majority of the untraced children were girls.

In 2008, a total of 413 missing children remained untraceable of which 222 were girls. Corresponding figures in the next four years are - 485 untraceable of which 213 were girls (2009), 854 of which 416 were girls (2010), 981 of which 559 were girls (2011) and 1,139 of which 623 were girls (2012).

The Sheila Dikshit government said it was pro-active in analyzing the trends in kidnapping or missing children. "Involvement of organized gangs in kidnapping or trafficking of children for any unlawful activity has so far not come to notice in Delhi," it said.

On the other hand, the NHRC was scathing in its affidavit. It recognized the importance of the issue of missing children raised by by NGO Bachpan Bachao Andolan through senior advocate H S Phoolka and said, "This is high time the issue is given top-most priority by the central government, all state governments and all other government and non-government actors/stakeholders."

The commission said it had constituted a committee after the Nithari serial rape-cum-murders to address the issue of missing children. The committee had issued guidelines and sent it to all states.

"But what happens to most of the recommendations, guidelines and reports has happened to the guidelines sent by the commission. The status remains the same, the guidelines became part of record, some states have simply filled up the form and sent back to the commission, while rest still have to find time to complete the paper formality," the NHRC said.

Taking note of Phoolka's allegation that nearly 200 children went missing every day from various states and 100 remained untraceable, the bench said, "Still no one seems to be bothered about it." It listed the matter for detailed hearing on April 15.

On March 17 last year, the court had issued notices to the Centre and states on the NGO's PIL seeking an advanced scientific mechanism to investigate and recover missing children. "In India, in the period from January 2008 to January 2010, over 1.17 lakh children have gone missing in 392 districts in India. Out of them, 41,546 are still untraced," it had said.

The petitioner had sought a direction to the Union government to formulate a National Action Plan on the issue of missing children which should include investigation, recovery, counseling and standard operating procedures for law enforcing agencies on coordinating their efforts.

dhananjay.mahapatra@timesgroup.com

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New Study Analyzes Heavy Metal Dancing

Parents may never understand their rock 'n' roll loving children, but scientists might. A study published online in arXiv this week seeks to explain the "mosh pit"—using physics.

To most scientists, heavy metal refers to elements on the lower end of the periodic table. But to Jesse Silverberg and Matt Bierbaum, doctoral students at Cornell University's department of Condensed Matter Physics, the aggressive music—and the violent dancing that accompanies it—could be a key to understanding extreme situations such as riots and panicked responses to disasters.

For the past two years, Silverberg and Bierbaum have studied "moshing," at heavy metal concerts, using theories of collective motion and the physical properties of gasses to better understand the chaos of metal fans' dancing.

Moshing, for those who have never attended a heavy metal show, is a form of dancing in which participants bump, jostle, and slam into one another. It's a form of social ritual that anthropologists have likened to spirit possession in its uncontrolled, dynamic, and often violent nature.

Silverberg and Bierbaum say it can also be understood by applying models of gaseous particles. As these particles float in groups, they too run, bash, and slam into each other, sending the elements flying in chaotic patterns.

"We are interested in how humans behave in similar excited states," said Silverberg, "but it's not exactly ethical to start a riot for research."

Extreme Physics

Mosh pits provided the scientists with a way to observe excited collective movement without causing undue injury or death. Analyzing hours of recorded footage from concerts and making multiple field trips to music clubs, Silverberg and Bierbaum recognized the particulate physical patterns in the mosh pit.

Further, they differentiated two distinct forms of heavy metal dancing: the "mosh pit" itself, which follows the gaseous pattern, and the "circle pit" (where dancers run, smash, and dance in a circular rotation) within it, which adheres to a vortex pattern of particulate behavior.

Based on these observations, they created an interactive computer model depicting the behavior.

Animal Instincts

"Herd animals behave in very similar spirit—what physicists call 'flocking' behavior," said Bierbaum. (See "The Genius of Swarms," from the July 2007 issue of National Geographic magazine.)

As with groups of flying birds or schooling fish, simple rules can be applied to individuals in large groups—like moshers—to understand what seems to be very complex behavior. This makes modeling possible, allowing computers to re-create immense numbers of actions in a matter of seconds. These models can then be used to design spaces that would minimize trampling or injury, or to tailor responses to disasters like fires.

"The lessons we've learned in mosh pits [could be used] to build better stadiums, or movie theaters," Silverberg said.

James Sethna, one of the researchers' advising professors, hastened to add that his students' forays into heavy metal science "didn't start out for reasons of creating safer stadiums. We did it because it was cool and we wanted to know if we could explain human behavior—albeit slightly intoxicated behavior—without having to use complex [models]."

A longtime heavy metal fan himself, Silverberg shared which band produced the best results: "Killswitch Engage ... always gets the crowd nuts. Although of course everyone has their own favorites."

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